Though it won't be official until Aug. 1, we can say with some certainty that there will be seven measures on the Nov. 2 General Election ballot — three legislative referrals and four citizen initiatives. One of the initiative measures, however, will be a moot point. Also, as mentioned in previous articles, it's noteworthy that for the first time in 15 years, there will be no Bill Sizemore-sponsored initiative on this year's ballot.

 

Oregon Secretary of State Kate Brown's office has announced the "preliminary" results of the signature validation process for the six citizen initiatives that were filed. Two of the six did not qualify for the ballot. They were:

 

• Initiative Petition 50 — Would have transferred the responsibility for legislative redistricting that follows each U.S. Census from the Oregon Legislature to an appointed commission of retired judges. This was a constitutional amendment and therefore required 110,358 valid signatures to qualify for the ballot, but it came up short.

 

• Initiative Petition 76 — Would have amended the state constitution to create an exception to the state's ban on private casinos. Specifically, this measure would have required the Legislature to allow one such casino if that casino is authorized by an initiative. This measure was sponsored by a consortium that planned to place a private casino in Wood Village, at the site of the former Multnomah Greyhound Track.

 

Petition 76's failure was surprising given the number of signatures supporters turned in. However, Petition 76 also had the second lowest ever signature validation rate, at just under 61 percent.

 

A companion measure, Initiative Petition 77, did qualify for the ballot. It directs the one private casino outlined in Petition 76 to be sited in Multnomah County; again, this was all aimed at using the former greyhound track property. Because 77 had enough valid signatures it will be on the ballot, but without 76 as well it doesn't matter if 77 passes or fails, supporters needed to pass both measures.

 

As usual, there was complaining from those whose measures failed to qualify. Supporters of Petition 50 even asked a Marion County Circuit Court judge to intervene and declare the sampling method invalid, but she refused to do so.

 

The sampling method dates back to a 1999 bill supported by — and herded through the Legislature by — AFSCME. It was "tweaked" in recent sessions, but the bottom line is that the Secretary of State's office uses a sampling formula developed by an Oregon State University mathematics professor to determine what percentage of signatures are valid. Opponents always complain that every signature should be examined individually instead of using a formula, but the key testimony in 1999 that led to the bill's passage showed that the monotonous, repetitive task of hand examining each and every signature leads to a human error factor that is higher than the plus/minus ratio in the sampling formula. The formula has held up to several court challenges, including the most recent one this month.

 

Once the initiatives are certified no later than Aug. 1, the Council 75 Political Action Committee will review them for possible action. Also, after Aug. 1, Brown's office will announce the official ballot measure numbers for each of the initiatives. Legislative referrals take precedent under the Oregon ballot measure numbering cycle, so those three will be Measures 70, 71 and 72, and the four citizen initiatives that qualified will be Measures 73, 74, 75 and 76 — but again, it's up to Brown to determine which measure gets which exact number.

 

A quick note about statutory vs. constitutional measures. Statutory measures can be changed by a future Oregon Legislature. Constitutional measures can only be changed by another vote of the people via another statewide measure. For the past 15 years or so, most citizen initiatives have aimed at the constitutional threshold, with the idea that makes them bullet-proof from "meddling" by the Legislature.

 

Here is a brief synopsis of the seven measures that will appear Nov. 2:

 

• House Joint Resolution (HJR) 7 — Would expand the availability of home ownership loans for Oregon veterans through the Oregon War Veterans' Fund.

 

• Senate Joint Resolution (SJR) 41 — Would amend the state constitution to require the Oregon Legislature to meet annually, with pre-determined time limits for the sessions, with some exceptions.

 

• SJR 48 — Would amend the state constitution to authorize the lowest-cost borrowing for the State of Oregon's real and personal property projects.

 

• Initiative Petition 13 — Would impose mandatory minimum sentences for certain major felony sex crimes and driving under the influence convictions. This is the latest "tough on crime" measure from Kevin Mannix and his cronies, and, as with his previous initiatives, it provides no funding source for the additional state prison inmates it would create. This is, interestingly enough, a statutory measure.

 

• Initiative Petition 28 — Would establish a medical marijuana supply system and assistance and research programs, and allow limited selling of marijuana. Another statutory measure.

 

• Initiative Petition 70 — Would amend the state constitution to indefinitely dedicate 15 percent of Oregon Lottery proceeds to parks and natural resources. This would continue the status quo of the past several years; however, the law that funneled the 15 percent to parks is due to sunset unless this measure passes.

 

• Initiative Petition 77 — As mentioned previously, this measure would have authorized, in conjunction with Initiative Petition 76, a private casino in Multnomah County. Again, with its companion measure failing to qualify, Initiative Petition 77 is a moot point pass or fail, but it will appear on the ballot.